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Time for Washington to Take a Realistic Look at China Policy (二)           ★★★ 【字体:
Time for Washington to Take a Realistic Look at China Policy (二)
作者:佚名    论文来源:本站原创    点击数:    更新时间:2008-12-6    

  By September 24,the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman signaled that Beijingwas "ready to study"American and British "proposals"that may be raised in theSecurity Council.26On October 25,President Jiang Zemin privately notified PresidentBush that China would not obstruct U.S.military action against Iraq,27and byNovember 8,China(like Syria)had voted for Resolution 1441in the Security Council.

  By January 2003,however,China saw that two other permanent members of theSecurity Council were ready to block a U.S.attempt to gain U.N.approval for militaryaction,and Beijing's diplomats discreetly lined up against Washington.

  On February 4,Powell met with his Chinese counterpart,Foreign MinisterTang Jiaxuan,in New York to brief Tang on Iraq.The next day,Tang privatelyreassured Powell that "as Chinese President Jiang Zemin had reassured U.S.PresidentGeorge W.Bush last October at the Bush ranch in Crawford ,Texas,China would`stand aside'on the Iraq issue at the U.N."Minister Tang also told French ForeignMinister Dominique de Villepin that China supported France's "strong and principledstance"calling for "more time"before approving the use of force against Iraq.Rather than "stand aside,"China instead lent rhetorical support to France andRussia,who both indicated that they would veto any use-of-force resolution.28

  In the end,the U.S.and its allies went ahead with the military invasion ofIraq without a new and explicit Security Council authorization,and China condemnedthe action in its public media as "nothing short of a war crime."29

  Although China has acquiesced in the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq,it remainscommitted to placing Iraq under U.N.authority and steadfastly opposes U.S.effortsto enlist U.N.assistance under U.S.leadership.In a speech to the U.N.GeneralAssembly on September 24,2003,Tang continued to snipe at the U.S.positionin Iraq.30

  As late as October 2003,China joined Russia,Germany,and France in pressingthe United States to commit to a timetable for withdrawing from Iraq at the earliestpossible time ,turn administration of Iraq over to the U.N.,and give the U.N.oversight of Iraq's financial reconstruction.China insists that the United Statesturn all sovereignty over to Iraq and make arrangements for a new constitution——uninfluenced by the United States ——at a later date.31

  Myth #3:China has helped in the North Korean nuclear crisis.

  As early as 1999,Richard Armitage (now Deputy Secretary of State )wrotea report for the National Defense University in which he observed that China hadnot been particularly helpful to the U.S.in the North Korean nuclear crisis.Specifically:

  China has resisted active cooperation ——with the Korean Peninsula Energy De-velopmentOrganization,with the World Food Program,and on missiles.Its inde-pendent actionspose a challenge to any successful U.S.policy.32Armitage recognized that Chinahad its own distinct agenda separate from the American effort to coax North Korea(DPRK)to abandon its nuclear weapons efforts.

  By late 2003,it is painfully clear that Beijing is not on Washington's side,or even neutral ,in the North Korean debate.Initially,Washington apparentlycalculated that enlisting Beijing in the North Korean nuclear debate would causeBeijing to move Pyongyang in the direction the U.S.wanted.Instead ,Beijing hasexpended virtually all its energies on getting the United States to move in NorthKorea's direction.33

  North Korean "negotiators"continued their threats to "demonstrate or transfer"nuclear weapons at the failed U.S.-North Korean talks hosted by China in Beijingon April 23,2003,and repeated their demands for a formal U.S.-DPRK treatyguaranteeing the security of the Pyongyang regime ,extensive economic aid ,aresumption of construction of a nuclear power plant ,and formal diplomatic recognitionfrom Washington.In addition,the North Koreans demanded that the U.S.use itsinfluence with Japan to deliver on Japanese economic aid and diplomatic ties.Butthe North Korean representative did not respond to U.S.insistence that North Koreadismantle its nuclear weapons program "completely ,verifiably ,and irreversibly."

  A subsequent American effort to engage the North Koreans in a six-party multilateralsetting was also fruitless.To balance the sides,the Chinese recruited Russiato join a multilateral forum,which was finally held in Beijing on August 27,2003,with China and Russia supporting the DPRK and the U.S.backed by Japan andSouth Korea.In those talks ,the North Koreans continued their vituperate threatsand insults ,saving the most pointed jibes for the hapless Russian deputy foreignminister whom the North Korean delegate referred to by name as a "liar"and a "lapdog"of the Americans.34Moreover ,the North Koreans refused to budge from theirinsistence on the right to develop and maintain a nuclear arsenal.The session endedacrimoniously but was nonetheless painted as "a good beginning"by the State Department.

  U.S.Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly commented that at least "it waspossible for all who were there to hear what was said by any"——that no longerwould the world simply have to take Kelly's word that North Korea's envoys behavedabominably.One State Department official said privately that American's biggest"trump card is Kim Jong Il,"whose behavior,reflected in his diplomats ,isso irrational as to undermine hope that a peaceful resolution of the nuclear crisisis even possible.

  Even Russia's normally sympathetic Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukovwas heard to have shaken his head in dismay and mutter "there go 55years of history."35The Russian remained noncommittal in public and would only "suggest"in private"that the North Koreans had not been listening to Mr.Kelly's presentation."36

  China ,however,remains firmly in North Korea's corner.The weekend afterthe talks ,Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wang Yi declared that "the main problemwe are facing"is not North Korea'shistrionics ,but "the American policy towards[the]DPRK."This after the vice minister was described by all present at the six-partytalks as "visibly angered"by the North Korean delegates'outbursts.37

  Powell played down Wang's attack on the U.S.position ,saying that "neitherI nor my staff,nor have Chinese officials we have talked to in Beijing about thematter,seen a full transcript ……and I am quite sure the Vice Foreign Ministerwas not resting the problem on the United States."38Nonetheless,the view thatWang's attack reflected Chinese policy was given credence by another key State Departmentofficial who said ,"normally,hearsay evidence is inadmissible ,but there isan exception for the `excited utterance.'"39

  There were other signs of strain in China's relationship with the DPRK.In mid-September,Vice Minister Wang apparently confided to reporters that he would accompany Chairmanof the National People's Congress Wu Bangguo,the second ranking member in theChinese Communist Party hierarchy ,to Pyongyang in an attempt to nudge Kim JungIl on the talks.But intelligence sources in Washington say Kim postponed the visitfor several weeks and in the end conditioned the visit on additional Chinese shipmentsof oil.Indeed,Wu's visit finally took place at the end of October with promisesof additional aid ,and Wu returned to Beijing with assurances that North Koreawould return to the conference table,provided Japan abjures any mention of itskidnap victims.40

  The kidnapping issue is of critical political importance to the Japanese government,and one that North Korea wants marginalized.When Pyongyang declared in Septemberthat it saw no use in further talks ,Beijing blamed Washington.When Pyongyangdemanded that Japan be dropped from the talks because of Tokyo's insistence on includingthe issue of abductees,China lent support.China also demarched the United Statesto cease mention of the Japanese abductees at the six-party talks.41

  Then it was reported that China had turned responsibility for border patrolson the Yalu River over to the People's Liberation Army.News reports indicated thatthe People's Armed Police ,which had previously patrolled the border,was justtoo corrupt to be trusted ,but intelligence reporting indicates that the Chinesemilitary is working more easily with DPRK troops in repatriating refugees.One officialin Washington says replacing the police with the army may be more a signal to theUnited States not to get involved in the North Korean refugee issue than a signalto North Korea that it is truly worried ——finally ——about a major refugee influx.42

  Whatever China's motives,it still acts as the DPRK's enabler.No public complaint,no exasperation ,no hint of impatience with Pyongyang comes from Beijing.Chinais North Korea's fuel and food supplier of last resort.In 1998,for example,the DPRK imported only 609,000tons of crude oil ,of which 83percent came fromChina.43The U.S.Department of State cites numbers of some $500million per yearin Chinese food aid to North Korea.44

  On the other hand ,the Chinese harangue the Americans for being obstructionistsin these talks.One Chinese official told reporters that the Chinese governmenthad "some concern ……that the Bush Administration's position had hardened to thepoint where compromise might be extremely difficult."That official pointed to theresignation of the Administration's special envoy for negotiations with North Korea,"who had advocated a somewhat more conciliatory approach than the one now popularwith the White House."45

  As the U.S.negotiating team prepares for a second round of six-party talksin Beijing in the coming year ,they should expect further pressure from the Chinesegovernment to accede to North Korean demands.They can be assured ,however,thatChina will not pressure North Korea for movement on "complete ,verifiable ,andirreversible"dismantling of its nuclear program.

  During Premier Wen's early December visit in Washington ,the North Koreansagain demanded that ,before North Korea takes any action,the "United Statesmust remove our country's name from the list of terrorism sponsoring countries;lift its political,economic ,military sanctions and blockade;and give us heavyoil ,electricity and other energy assistance from the United States and neighboringcountries."46Key Administration arms control officials remain convinced that Beijingand Pyongyang developed this position jointly and hoped to ram it through the U.S.bureaucracy during the Wen visit,but were unsuccessful.They say that ,in theseveral weeks before the Wen visit,China "stepped up deliveries to North Koreaof fuel oil and food"to the DPRK and that,"as an added incentive ,Beijing shippedan entire glass factory to North Korea."47

  Myth #4:China has slowed its support of WMD proliferation.

  In March 2002,Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet reported thatChinese activities not only "continue to be inimical not just to our interests,but [also]stimulate secondary activities that only complicate the threat that weface,our forces face and our allies face,particularly in the Middle East,"and added that "in some instances these activities are condoned by the government."48In fact ,the CIA reported in January 2002that China provided "extensive support"to Pakistan's nuclear programs in the past and that ,even as late as the firsthalf of 2001,"continued contacts"between Chinese entities and Pakistani nuclearweapons developers could not be ruled out ,despite China's 1996promise to stopassistance to unsafeguarded nuclear facilities.49

  The Administration's frustration with China was explained by Assistant Secretaryof State Paula De-Sutter in July 2003:"At the highest levels ,the Chinese governmenthas claimed that it opposes missile proliferation ……[U]nfortunately ,the realityhas been quite different."DeSutter went on to document 15years of China's brokenpromises,mendacity,and prevarications on missile,nuclear,and chemical weaponsproliferation issues.50

  The CIA's January 2002report also documented that Chinese firms had "providedsignificant assistance"to Pakistan's ballistic missile programs,including serialproduction of solid-fuel short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM),and noted thatthere were "some interactions"in early 2001between Chinese and Iranian missileand nuclear weapons development entities.

  In June 2002,the White House reported to Congress on weapons proliferation.It revealed that Chinese,North Korean ,and Russian companies "have continuedto supply Iran with a wide variety of missile-related goods ,technology ,andexpertise."51In May 2002,the U.S.sanctioned eight Chinese entities for sellingmissile-related equipment and other unspecified WMD-related materials to Iran.Theunspecified materials apparently were components for Iran's anti-ship cruise missileprogram.52

  China's missile proliferation to Iran continued unabated through 2002,resultingin further U.S.sanctions against Chinese firms on July 9for "knowingly and materially"contributing to the proliferation of destabilizing numbers and types of cruise missilesin Iran.Nor was Chinese proliferation to Iran limited to missiles.On both January16and July 9,the Administration sanctioned several Chinese firms for transfersof anti-corrosive glass-lined equipment to make chemical weapons and for other chemicalweapons-related sales to Iran.

  China also has a long history of aiding North Korea's missile program.Intelligencehas recently revealed that China sold specialty steel and missile-related accelerometers,gyroscopes,and precision grinding machinery to the DPRK for its missile program.

  Moreover,China has worked with Pyongyang on its space program ,which isclosely associated with its military.The CIA's January 2002report noted that NorthKorea acquired Chinese missile components in the first half of 2001and apparentlyresold those items to Iran,Syria,Pakistan ,Egypt,and Libya.

  On October 4,2002,during talks with American diplomats ,North Korea surprisinglyacknowledged its secret program to enrich uranium to develop nuclear weapons,aflagrant violation of the commitments made by the DPRK in the 1994Agreed Frameworkto cease its nuclear program.American intelligence learned that the North Koreanuranium technology and equipment was transferred from Pakistan,which air-shippedthe cargo via Chinese military bases,probably well into 2002.53

  Libya is another worrisome customer of Chinese missile technology.Defense intelligencelearned in December 1999that China intended to build Libya a hypersonic wind tunnelfor its "Al Fatah"SRBM program and was training Libyan missile experts at the BeijingUniversity of Aeronautics and Astronautics.China also provided Libya with navigationaland guidance systems,which the CIA's January 2002report said were "critical"to Libya's ballistic missile programs.54

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